Jiantou Energy (000600): Phased stacking of profit in the third quarter due to sluggish demand and limited decline in coal prices

Jiantou Energy 深圳桑拿网 (000600): Phased stacking of profit in the third quarter due to sluggish demand and limited decline in coal prices

The main points of the report describe the company ‘s disclosure of the 2019 third quarter performance forecast: the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of approximately 46,300 in the first three quarters.

One million yuan, an increase of about 64% a year, so the profit is about zero.

259 yuan.

Comment on the incident Hebei’s thermal power utilization hours decreased significantly, and the company’s power growth was under pressure.

Hebei’s power demand growth in 2019, according to the latest data Hebei’s power demand growth and growth from January to August5.

69%, a growth rate of 5 compared to the same period last year.

77% were basically flat.

Affected by this, at the same time, Hebei’s thermal power generation gradually increased only slightly.

70%, which in turn caused pressure on the province ‘s thermal power utilization hours: from January to August, Hebei ‘s gradual average utilization hours of thermal power equipment ranked second in the country with 3,319 hours, but it took 116 hours compared to the same period last year.

Therefore, it is difficult for the company to achieve significant growth in the first three quarters.

In the third quarter, although Hebei ‘s electricity consumption reached 70.3 billion kilowatt hours in July-August, it increased by 2 every year.

18%, but the average utilization hours of thermal power in the province is only 869 hours, which is 123 hours less than the 992 hours of the same period last year. Therefore, the company may face pressure in production and operation in the third quarter, and it may be difficult to increase the amount of power generation and revenue.
The sluggish demand and the limited decline in coal prices may be the main reason for the profit swap in the third quarter.

Year-to-date, the national coal price center has moved down significantly. From January to August, the average coal price index in northern Hebei and southern Hebei was 463.

39 yuan / ton and 493.

84 yuan / ton, which is reduced by 22 each year.

17 yuan / ton and 20 yuan.

26 yuan / ton.

However, the average coal price index in northern Hebei and southern Hebei in July-August was 453.

45 yuan / ton and 482.

11 yuan / ton, down by 13 each year.

43 yuan / ton and 15.

02 yuan / ton, the decline has narrowed significantly.

Therefore, it can be found that in the third quarter, under the background of the obvious pressure of hours, coal prices in Hebei continued to decline in sync with the weak demand.In the third quarter of 2019, the company is expected to earn 7,160.

One million yuan, a ten-year average of 24%.

The priority of power generation of cogeneration units ranks first, and the coming of the heating season is favorable for the power generation and heating business.

More than 90% of the company’s normal high-efficiency combined heat and power units, under the current background of greater environmental protection inspections in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the rapid 杭州桑拿 growth of centralized heating demand, heating business is expected to become the company’s new growth point.

Considering that the North is gradually entering the heating period, the combined heat and power unit “sets heat with heat” and the highest priority for power generation, so the company is expected to achieve rapid growth in the future.

Investment recommendations and estimates: According to the company’s latest announcement, we adjust the company’s profit forecast, and the company’s 2019-2021 EPS is expected to be 0.

36 yuan, 0.

56 yuan and 0.

68 yuan, corresponding to 15 for PE.

51 times, 9.

96 times and 8.

22 times, maintain the company’s “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: 1.

Risk of deterioration of power supply and demand environment; 2.

Risk of unsustainable growth in coal prices.