Shanying Paper (600567): Elimination of waste pulp tariffs to increase company profits

Shanying Paper (600567): Elimination of waste pulp tariffs to increase company profits

Event: On February 18, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council will exclude the market-oriented procurement of goods subject to tariffs on the United States and Canada, and will no longer impose tariffs on measures 301 against the United States within a certain period.Including waste paper, the company has declared, pending approval.

  On February 21, the State Council ‘s Tariff Commission announced the first list of the second batch of goods subject to tariffs imposed on the United States and Canada.

For the goods listed in List 1, from February 28, 2020 to February 27, 2021, the tariffs imposed by the state for anti-US measures 301 will no longer be levied.

Partial refund of the duties and taxes levied on the goods, of which the first list includes waste paper pulp.

  Opinion: Eliminate the tariff on waste paper pulp. The U.S. waste tariff may be abolished to increase company profits.

The company’s subsidiary North America Phoenix Paper’s 12-insertion waste pulp project is in production and is expected to reach 12 inches in 2020.

According to the current price of waste paper pulp, the company’s profit will increase by more than 50 million next year after the 20% tariff is cancelled.

At present, the waste paper tariff exclusion is 厦门夜网 being applied for approval. If the approval is approved, the cost of raw materials will be further reduced. In 2019, the company will receive a replacement of 143 for external waste.

Assuming that foreign waste products will gradually decrease by 50% in 2020, the number of external waste products is expected to be about 71.

5 First of all, based on the current external waste price of $ 150 ton, company 1 will be thickened.

8.4 billion profit.

  The company was less affected by the epidemic, and the first wave of price increases for packaging paper began.

The first quarter is the traditional off-season for the corrugated board industry, with factory output exceeding sales.

The company’s main factories are located in Ma’anshan, Anhui, and Jiaxing, Zhejiang. The epidemic situation is relatively light, and the current production capacity of the Hubei factory is low.

We expect that the outbreak will have less impact on the company.

On February 17, the paper mills successively issued price increase notices, and the price increases of packaging paper ranged from 50-150 yuan, and the first wave of price increases began.

  Profit forecast and estimation: Considering various uncertain factors such as the impact of the epidemic situation and the changes in supply and demand after the resumption of small factories in the later period, no performance adjustment will be made.

It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

32.

  0.

42, 0.

46 yuan, corresponding to PE is 11x.

8 times

7x, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk Warning: The price of raw materials has risen sharply, and the epidemic has affected production and downstream packaging demand